The housing market is stuck in a standoff. On one side, you have buyers, repeatedly beaten with high home prices, higher mortgage rates, and almost non-existent affordability. On the other, you have the sellers, who are sitting on low-interest-rate mortgages, unwilling to take a price lower than they want, waiting for rates to come back down, so the bidding wars begin all over again. This standoff has caused the housing market to come to a halt, with inventory at unbelievably low levels and no one willing to buy or sell.
But weren’t we supposed to be past this? When rates dropped earlier this year, the housing market looked like it was on a fast track to a real estate revival. But now, homebuyers, sellers, and investors don’t know where to turn. And that’s precisely why we brought on HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami, the one person who knows the real estate market better than the rest. Last time we had Logan on, he debunked the claim of a 2008-style housing crash repeat, and now, he’s on to forecast when the housing market could finally reach a healthy point again.
Logan knows why homeowners aren’t selling, why buyers aren’t bidding, and when mortgage rates will come back down. With some simple stats and data, Logan lays out almost exactly what would have to happen for us to enter a normal housing market and gives a rough timeline of when we can expect these changes to take place. And if you’re still on the “it’s gonna crash!” bandwagon, we’d suggest sticking around for Logan’s full explanation, as it may completely reverse what you thought was conceivable.
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In This Episode We Cover
- Mortgage rate forecasts and what has to “break” for rates to come back down
- Foreclosures, distressed sellers, and why there isn’t more inventory on the market
- Homebuyers vs. sellers and why neither of these two will make moves until the other does
- 2008 vs. 2023 and why a Great Recession repeat is a lot less likely than you think
- What could cause affordability to rise and help homebuyers get into properties
- Rent growth declines and why rents are starting to stall even as homebuying becomes challenging
- The commercial real estate “crash” and which sector is most primed for price cuts
- And So Much More!
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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.